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EMILY UPDATED DISCUSSION August 4,2011 9:35pm EDT.
August 2,2011 Emily Discussion.
I wasn’t happy with my first discussion. It has some grammatical and spelling mistakes in it. It’s my first discussion since 2008. For honesty purposes I’ve decided to leave it as is. As I read the discussions from the NHC(National Hurricane Center) yesterday I read the panic amongst forecasters as Emily failed to turn Northward from its westward path. I dug up my old February 11,2007 discussion where I covered the USAF’s activities in pushing that Valentine’s Day storm further west and reading the panic amongst State College PA meteorologists over the NAM 18Z run which first identified the further westward track(24hrs after I had predicted it based on spraying by the USAF). The panic at the NHC went like this…
“SATELLITE AND AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT THE EXPECTED TURN TO THE NORTHWEST HAS NOT MATERIALIZED YET…AFTER THAT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL ASSUMES THAT THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY TO TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...IF THE NORTHWARD TURN DOES NOT BEGIN SOON...THE THREAT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL INCREASE.”
NHC Discussion Aug 3,2011.
What I covered the night before was the strengthening of the Bermuda High Pressure through upper level spraying with solar radiation absorbing chemtrails. What these chemtrails do is absorb solar radiation and warm the upper atmosphere strengthening a high pressure zone or making one. What happened was that the ridge became stronger and forced Emily further West. Not because their scheme to bring it north failed, but because the Bermuda High really did strengthen. To put this into perspective image blowing up a balloon and then placing it over top a pot of boiling water on the stove. If we leave it there long enough the air inside the balloon will heat up from the steam and will cause the balloon to expand, making it larger. What Emily encountered was the enlarging of the balloon and it forced Emily to go further west in it’s track before turning Northward. Emily finally turned to the Northwest long after it was expected to this morning. Our USAF boys were in panic mode. Here is the discussion from 11am August 4,2011.
“SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THAN YESTERDAY WHEN THERE WAS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER. TODAY THE CENTER IS WELL EMBEDDED IN THE CONVECTION WITH CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS...A POSSIBLE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...AND MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...THE OUTFLOW HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS…THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MORE COMPLEX THAN USUAL. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA AND THAT IMPLIES WEAKENING. IN ADDITION...GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE...AND OBVIOUSLY THESE MODELS CAN DETECT AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THAT IS NOT APPARENT TO ME.”
NHC Discussion Aug 4,2011 11am.
NHC in panic mode, so what does the USAF do? They dispatch planes. We have to look at Tuesday’s discussion for Satellite training for this analysis. Remember the X First Emily Discussion.we saw off of New England on Tuesday? Remember how it looked “dark” compared to the surrounding cloud environment? What we have to keep in mind is that large commercial aircraft do not fly through a tropical system like Emily and only specialized trained pilots would fly into a tropical system. Yet we saw exactly that this afternoon to the south of Emily.
What happened over a period of 6 hours?
“SINCE ITS INCEPTION...EMILY NEVER HAD A PARTICULARLY ROBUST LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...AND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA CONTRIBUTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE FURTHER DEGENERATION OF THE CYCLONE TODAY. SATELLITE...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT EMILY NO LONGER HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION....AND THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WITH ITS AXIS ALONG 75W. THIS WAS A BIG WIN FOR THE ECMWF GLOBAL MODEL...WHICH NEVER DEVELOPED EMILY AND ALWAYS FORECAST DISSIPATION NEAR HISPANIOLA.”
NHC Discussion Aug 4,2011 5pm.
It was better organized than yesterday 6 hours ago, the lead NHC forecaster didn’t understand the intensity forecasts by the global computer models and then poof…6 hours Emily loses everything...everything. Normally the excuse is that dry air disrupted the circulation, but this time it is mountains and the convection disappeared to the South of Emily. Only problem is it’s still offshore!!!
Let’s take a look at some visible satellite photos of Emily. Here’s the 1515 UTC or 11:15am visible satellite picture of Emily. We can see convection around it’s center and eastern semi-circle. Now let’s see what happens with Emily.
This photo is 90 minutes later at 16:45UTC or 12:45pm Eastern. Remember the X from Tuesday off the New England Coast? We are looking at the same exact signatures re-appearing around the Southern and Eastern parts of Emily. We are seeing planes go through and cut through cloud cover. If we are savvy we also notice that NASA has started blurring the satellite pictures over top of Emily as this Weather Modification Operation has begun.
Let’s look another ½ hour later! Notice where they were cutting up the storm the tracks becomes ever more apparent. This picture is from 1:15pm. In 2 hours we went from an Emily with a center of circulation to a storm that is looking like its on life support. We also notice that NASA still have blurred the Satellite photos as the USAF’s operation continues.
Ahhhh 3 hours and 15 minutes later! Emily looks… well dead. There isn’t too much left to Emily, except what has emerged as grids of chemtrails on it’s western side and big swaths cut through the clouds that we observed 1 hour and 45 minutes prior. A tropical storm over the warmest water in the Atlantic mysteriously loses it’s convection in 1hour and 45 minutes and NASA just happens to clear up the satellite photo over top of Emily in the nick of time. Although the grids to the west of Emily still appear kinda smeared.
Let’s look 4hours and 15 minutes later at 19:15UTC or 3:15pm. Ahhhhh… Emily is dead and at 5pm the NHC agrees. Their explanations as quoted from above. The mountains disrupted it. Funny… the mountains exist over open ocean? Because that’s where we noticed the paths through the clouds began, over the Caribbean Sea, not over the mountains of Hispaniola. The blurring of satellite pictures over Emily when the USAF was conducting it’s hurricane operations? Gee…it was all just nature and geography that killed this one. Especially those large mountains over the Caribbean Sea!!!!